Stock Analysis

Investors in Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium (SHSE:600497) have unfortunately lost 8.0% over the last three years

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SHSE:600497

One of the frustrations of investing is when a stock goes down. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. The Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600497) is down 14% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -8.0% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 33% over the last three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 11% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 11% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

View our latest analysis for Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 19% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The company has kept revenue pretty healthy over the last three years, so we doubt that explains the falling share price. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SHSE:600497 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 19th 2024

We know that Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium the TSR over the last 3 years was -8.0%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium returned a loss of 8.9% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 19%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 4% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

But note: Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.