Shareholders in Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery (SZSE:002461) are in the red if they invested three years ago

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd (SZSE:002461) shareholders, since the share price is down 31% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 22%.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

Check out our latest analysis for Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Although the share price is down over three years, Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery actually managed to grow EPS by 1.7% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.

With a rather small yield of just 1.6% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. Revenue is actually up 7.8% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

If you are thinking of buying or selling Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery, it has a TSR of -27% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

The total return of 13% received by Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery shareholders over the last year isn't far from the market return of -15%. The silver lining is that longer term investors would have made a total return of 6% per year over half a decade. If the stock price has been impacted by changing sentiment, rather than deteriorating business conditions, it could spell opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery you should be aware of.

But note: Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com