Baota Industry Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:000595) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

Baota Industry Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:000595) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 14.4x may look like a poor investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Machinery industry in China have P/S ratios below 2.4x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Baota Industry

What Does Baota Industry's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

The revenue growth achieved at Baota Industry over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. Perhaps the market is expecting this decent revenue performance to beat out the industry over the near term, which has kept the P/S propped up. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Baota Industry's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Baota Industry's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 19% gain to the company's top line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 45% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 22% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Baota Industry's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that Baota Industry currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Baota Industry with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com