Zbom Home Collection Co.,Ltd Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Zbom Home Collection Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603801), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Unfortunately, Zbom Home CollectionLtd delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CN¥1.5b were 20% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.27 missed estimates by 31%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Zbom Home CollectionLtd

Following the latest results, Zbom Home CollectionLtd's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥6.70b in 2025. This would be a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 25% to CN¥1.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥6.72b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.48 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 6.6% to CN¥16.22despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Zbom Home CollectionLtd's earnings by assigning a price premium. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Zbom Home CollectionLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥20.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥12.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Zbom Home CollectionLtd's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 14% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Zbom Home CollectionLtd is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Zbom Home CollectionLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Zbom Home CollectionLtd has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.