Galderma Group AG Just Beat EPS By 26%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Galderma Group AG (VTX:GALD) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.6% to CHF99.44 in the past week. Revenues were US$4.4b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.97, an impressive 26% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Galderma Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Galderma Group's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$4.89b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 78% to US$1.73. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.90 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF108, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Galderma Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF123 and the most bearish at CHF85.54 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Galderma Group shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Galderma Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Galderma Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 8.1% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Galderma Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Galderma Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Galderma Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Galderma Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Galderma Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Galderma Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.