Stock Analysis
- Switzerland
- /
- Packaging
- /
- SWX:SIGN
SIG Group (VTX:SIGN) pulls back 4.5% this week, but still delivers shareholders notable 7.9% CAGR over 5 years
Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the SIG Group AG (VTX:SIGN) share price is up 31% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 9.1% (ignoring dividends).
In light of the stock dropping 4.5% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
Check out our latest analysis for SIG Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years of share price growth, SIG Group moved from a loss to profitability. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. In fact, the SIG Group stock price is 31% lower in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 16% per year. So there seems to be a mismatch between the positive EPS growth and the change in the share price, which is down -12% per year.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that SIG Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of SIG Group, it has a TSR of 46% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
SIG Group shareholders are down 14% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 9.6%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand SIG Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for SIG Group you should know about.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.
New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place
We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.
• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SWX:SIGN
SIG Group
Provides aseptic carton packaging systems and solutions for beverage and liquid food products.