VAT Group AG Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for VAT Group AG (VTX:VACN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.6% to CHF459. VAT Group reported CHF885m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CHF6.34 beat expectations, being 6.7% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for VAT Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for VAT Group from 14 analysts is for revenues of CHF980.9m in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 14% to CHF7.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF991.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF7.31 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CHF407, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic VAT Group analyst has a price target of CHF585 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF280. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that VAT Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that VAT Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF407, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on VAT Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple VAT Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether VAT Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.