Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Arbonia AG (VTX:ARBN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Arbonia
What Is Arbonia's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Arbonia had debt of CHF140.2m at the end of December 2020, a reduction from CHF176.5m over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CHF52.1m, its net debt is less, at about CHF88.1m.
A Look At Arbonia's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Arbonia had liabilities of CHF321.3m due within 12 months and liabilities of CHF300.6m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CHF52.1m as well as receivables valued at CHF94.6m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CHF475.2m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Arbonia has a market capitalization of CHF1.14b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Arbonia has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.73. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 10.5 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The good news is that Arbonia has increased its EBIT by 4.7% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Arbonia can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Arbonia actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
Arbonia's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. For example its interest cover was refreshing. We think that Arbonia's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. Not all risk is bad, as it can boost share price returns if it pays off, but this debt risk is worth keeping in mind. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Arbonia's earnings per share history for free.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About SWX:ARBN
Arbonia
Engages in the supply of building components in Switzerland, Germany, and internationally.
Adequate balance sheet and fair value.