Stock Analysis

Investing in Thurgauer Kantonalbank (VTX:TKBP) three years ago would have delivered you a 29% gain

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SWX:TKBP

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, Thurgauer Kantonalbank (VTX:TKBP) shareholders have seen the share price rise 19% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (4.4%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 5.6% in the last year, including dividends.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Thurgauer Kantonalbank

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Thurgauer Kantonalbank was able to grow its EPS at 4.6% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is lower than the 6% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. It is quite common to see investors become enamoured with a business, after a few years of solid progress.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SWX:TKBP Earnings Per Share Growth July 25th 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Thurgauer Kantonalbank's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Thurgauer Kantonalbank the TSR over the last 3 years was 29%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Thurgauer Kantonalbank shareholders are up 5.6% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 6% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Is Thurgauer Kantonalbank cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

We will like Thurgauer Kantonalbank better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Thurgauer Kantonalbank might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.