Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (CSE:TRUL) Third-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (CSE:TRUL) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.9% to CA$9.25 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$288m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.11 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Following last week's earnings report, Trulieve Cannabis' nine analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$1.21b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 82% to US$0.12. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.22b and losses of US$0.14 per share in 2026. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a favorable reduction in losses per share in particular.

See our latest analysis for Trulieve Cannabis

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$19.16, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trulieve Cannabis at CA$28.36 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$14.99. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Trulieve Cannabis' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Trulieve Cannabis.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$19.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Trulieve Cannabis. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Trulieve Cannabis analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Trulieve Cannabis that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.