Green Thumb Industries Inc. Just Recorded A 174% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Green Thumb Industries Inc. (CSE:GTII) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.2% to CA$17.48 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$249m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 174%, coming in at US$0.13 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Green Thumb Industries

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Green Thumb Industries' 16 analysts is for revenues of US$1.12b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 14% to US$0.28. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.27 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Green Thumb Industries' earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$26.13, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Green Thumb Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$45.58 and the most bearish at CA$18.13 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Green Thumb Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 32% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Green Thumb Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Green Thumb Industries' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Green Thumb Industries going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Green Thumb Industries is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.