Results: SilverCrest Metals Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Shareholders of SilverCrest Metals Inc. (TSE:SIL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to CA$8.74 following its latest annual results. Revenues US$245m disappointed slightly, at2.7% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of US$0.81 coming in 12% above what was anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for SilverCrest Metals

Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering SilverCrest Metals provided consensus estimates of US$233.1m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 4.9% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 47% to US$0.42 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$224.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$8.86, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SilverCrest Metals at CA$9.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$7.25. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting SilverCrest Metals is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.9% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 95% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that SilverCrest Metals' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for SilverCrest Metals. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$8.86, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for SilverCrest Metals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for SilverCrest Metals (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.