Hudbay Minerals Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Hudbay Minerals Inc. (TSE:HBM) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest annual results, closing yesterday at CA$10.10. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.20, some 53% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$2.0b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Hudbay Minerals

Following the latest results, Hudbay Minerals' eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.10b in 2025. This would be a modest 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 262% to US$0.70. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.22b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.83 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CA$15.10 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Hudbay Minerals analyst has a price target of CA$17.33 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$13.53. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hudbay Minerals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 16% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hudbay Minerals is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hudbay Minerals. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at CA$15.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hudbay Minerals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Hudbay Minerals' balance sheet, and whether we think Hudbay Minerals is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.