Ero Copper (TSX:ERO): Is There More Value After 59% Share Price Surge?

Ero Copper (TSX:ERO) has recently drawn attention as its stock posted gains of nearly 5% in a single day and over 59% across the past 3 months. This remarkable momentum stands out against broader market trends and invites a closer look at what is driving the company’s performance.

See our latest analysis for Ero Copper.

Ero Copper’s recent 59% share price return over three months is part of a clear upswing, reflecting both strong earnings momentum and growing optimism about copper demand. Over the past year, the company delivered a total shareholder return of 22%, and its long-term track record continues to build investor confidence in the story.

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With shares soaring and a strong track record behind it, the question now is whether Ero Copper remains undervalued or if the market has already factored in the company’s anticipated future growth. Is there still a buying opportunity here?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.9% Undervalued

With Ero Copper’s most popular narrative assigning a fair value moderately above its latest close, there is clear potential seen for the shares, even after recent gains. Investors are watching earnings momentum and the company’s evolving growth story for fresh catalysts.

The ramp-up of higher-grade and lower-cost sources (notably Surubim's open-pit and Xavantina's newly mechanized stopes), combined with ongoing modernization at Pilar and strong balance sheet deleveraging, create a foundation for both near and medium-term earnings accretion and free cash flow growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what powers this forecast? The narrative rides on a tightly woven set of growth assumptions, margin upgrades, and an expected leap in profitability. What hidden drivers are behind this bullish fair value? Uncover the surprising financial projections and the one risk factor experts are quietly watching now.

Result: Fair Value of $33.93 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, it is important to note that challenges like production guidance revisions and risks specific to Brazil could quickly shift Ero Copper’s outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Ero Copper narrative.

Build Your Own Ero Copper Narrative

If you have a different angle or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can test your own thesis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Ero Copper research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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