Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Equinox Gold Corp.'s (TSE:EQX) Third-Quarter Report

It's been a good week for Equinox Gold Corp. (TSE:EQX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 7.3% to CA$8.10. It was a curious result overall, with revenues coming in 2.2% below what the analysts had expected, at US$428m. The company broke even in terms of statutory earnings per share (EPS). Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Equinox Gold

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Equinox Gold are now predicting revenues of US$2.45b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 98% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 97% to US$1.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.41b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.09 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at CA$11.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Equinox Gold at CA$16.98 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$8.46. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Equinox Gold's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 73% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 18% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Equinox Gold is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Equinox Gold. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Equinox Gold going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Equinox Gold (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.