NuVista Energy's (TSE:NVA) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

NuVista Energy Ltd. (TSE:NVA) shareholders have seen the share price descend 12% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. In that time, the share price has soared some 517% higher! Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.4%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for NuVista Energy

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, NuVista Energy achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 33% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 44% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

A Different Perspective

NuVista Energy shareholders gained a total return of 6.0% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 44% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that NuVista Energy is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com