Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About MEG Energy Corp. (TSE:MEG)?

MEG Energy (TSE:MEG) has had a rough three months with its share price down 11%. However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Specifically, we decided to study MEG Energy's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for MEG Energy

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for MEG Energy is:

13% = CA$586m ÷ CA$4.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CA$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CA$0.13.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of MEG Energy's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, MEG Energy's ROE looks acceptable. Especially when compared to the industry average of 9.6% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. This certainly adds some context to MEG Energy's exceptional 60% net income growth seen over the past five years. However, there could also be other causes behind this growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared MEG Energy's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 39% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for MEG? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is MEG Energy Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

MEG Energy doesn't pay any regular dividends currently which essentially means that it has been reinvesting all of its profits into the business. This definitely contributes to the high earnings growth number that we discussed above.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with MEG Energy's performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com