Stock Analysis

Despite shrinking by CA$71m in the past week, Guardian Capital Group (TSE:GCG.A) shareholders are still up 120% over 5 years

TSX:GCG.A
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Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. To wit, the Guardian Capital Group share price has climbed 92% in five years, easily topping the market return of 31% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 10% , including dividends .

While the stock has fallen 6.2% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Guardian Capital Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years of share price growth, Guardian Capital Group moved from a loss to profitability. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:GCG.A Earnings Per Share Growth May 1st 2024

We know that Guardian Capital Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Guardian Capital Group, it has a TSR of 120% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Guardian Capital Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 10% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 17% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guardian Capital Group better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Guardian Capital Group .

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Guardian Capital Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.