Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Spin Master Corp. (TSE:TOY) After Its Third-Quarter Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Spin Master Corp. (TSE:TOY) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to CA$30.74 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$886m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.43 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Spin Master is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Spin Master

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Spin Master's eight analysts is for revenues of US$2.37b in 2025. This reflects a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 640% to US$2.22. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.27 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$42.68, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Spin Master at CA$47.58 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$35.21. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Spin Master's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.7% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Spin Master to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Spin Master. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Spin Master. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Spin Master going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Spin Master has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.