Stock Analysis

Earnings growth outpaced the decent 32% return delivered to Aecon Group (TSE:ARE) shareholders over the last year

Published
TSX:ARE

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. To wit, the Aecon Group Inc. (TSE:ARE) share price is 25% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 3.8% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! On the other hand, longer term shareholders have had a tougher run, with the stock falling 19% in three years.

Since it's been a strong week for Aecon Group shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Aecon Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year Aecon Group saw its earnings per share (EPS) increase strongly. This remarkable growth rate may not be sustainable, but it is still impressive. So we're unsurprised to see the share price gaining ground. Strong growth like this can be evidence of a fundamental inflection point in the business, making it a good time to investigate the stock more closely.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

TSX:ARE Earnings Per Share Growth March 7th 2024

We know that Aecon Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Aecon Group will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Aecon Group's TSR for the last 1 year was 32%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Aecon Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 32% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 2% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Aecon Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.