These 4 Measures Indicate That Suzano (BVMF:SUZB3) Is Using Debt Extensively

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Suzano S.A. (BVMF:SUZB3) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Suzano

What Is Suzano's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Suzano had R$88.6b of debt, up from R$74.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has R$21.6b in cash leading to net debt of about R$67.0b.

A Look At Suzano's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Suzano had liabilities of R$15.8b falling due within a year, and liabilities of R$96.7b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of R$21.6b and R$8.21b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total R$82.7b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of R$68.7b, we think shareholders really should watch Suzano's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Suzano's debt is 3.6 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.9 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Shareholders should be aware that Suzano's EBIT was down 42% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Suzano can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Suzano's free cash flow amounted to 27% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Suzano's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. But at least its interest cover is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider Suzano to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Suzano (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.