At R$48.43, Is Suzano S.A. (BVMF:SUZB3) Worth Looking At Closely?

Let's talk about the popular Suzano S.A. (BVMF:SUZB3). The company's shares received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the BOVESPA over the last few months, increasing to R$62.59 at one point, and dropping to the lows of R$48.43. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Suzano's current trading price of R$48.43 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Suzano’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for Suzano

Is Suzano still cheap?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Suzano’s ratio of 5.43x is trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 7.92x, which means if you buy Suzano today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Suzano should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. Furthermore, it seems like Suzano’s share price is quite stable, which means there may be less chances to buy low in the future now that it’s priced similarly to industry peers. This is because the stock is less volatile than the wider market given its low beta.

What does the future of Suzano look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with an extremely negative double-digit change in profit expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth is certainly not a driver of a buy decision. It seems like high uncertainty is on the cards for Suzano, at least in the near future.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, SUZB3 appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on SUZB3, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on SUZB3 for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystallize your views on SUZB3 should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for Suzano (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) and we strongly recommend you look at them before investing.

If you are no longer interested in Suzano, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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