Stock Analysis

São Martinho's (BVMF:SMTO3) 14% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period

Published
BOVESPA:SMTO3

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, the São Martinho S.A. (BVMF:SMTO3) share price is up 56% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 13% (ignoring dividends).

The past week has proven to be lucrative for São Martinho investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for São Martinho

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, São Martinho achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 20% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 9% over the same period. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 10.26.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

BOVESPA:SMTO3 Earnings Per Share Growth May 8th 2024

Dive deeper into São Martinho's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of São Martinho's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, São Martinho's TSR for the last 5 years was 89%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in São Martinho had a tough year, with a total loss of 7.5% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 21%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 14% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with São Martinho , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course São Martinho may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.