Earnings Beat: BRF S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for BRF S.A. (BVMF:BRFS3) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to R$18.51 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at R$13b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 66%, coming in at R$0.30 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BRF after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for BRF

Following the latest results, BRF's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$55.6b in 2024. This would be an okay 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$55.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.75 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of R$16.69, with BRF seemingly executing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BRF at R$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$12.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that BRF's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BRF is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

At least one of BRF's ten analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for BRF (2 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.