Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Ambev S.A. (BVMF:ABEV3)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Ambev's (BVMF:ABEV3) recent performance, when its stock has declined 4.9% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study Ambev's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Ambev

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Ambev is:

17% = R$15b ÷ R$87b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every R$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of R$0.17.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Ambev's Earnings Growth And 17% ROE

When you first look at it, Ambev's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, the fact that the company's ROE is higher than the average industry ROE of 11%, is definitely interesting. This certainly adds some context to Ambev's moderate 7.7% net income growth seen over the past five years. That being said, the company does have a slightly low ROE to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. So there might well be other reasons for the earnings to grow. E.g the company has a low payout ratio or could belong to a high growth industry.

As a next step, we compared Ambev's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 4.2%.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is ABEV3 fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Ambev Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Ambev has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 75%, meaning that it is left with only 25% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Additionally, Ambev has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 78%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Ambev's future ROE will be 19% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Ambev has some positive attributes. Specifically, its respectable ROE which likely led to the considerable growth in earnings. Yet, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Which means that the company has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's not too bad. We also studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that the company's earnings growth is expected be similar to its current growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com