Stock Analysis

The total return for Vulcabras (BVMF:VULC3) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

Published
BOVESPA:VULC3

Vulcabras S.A. (BVMF:VULC3) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 16% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. Indeed, the share price is up an impressive 119% in that time. We think it's more important to dwell on the long term returns than the short term returns. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now.

While the stock has fallen 7.0% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Vulcabras

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Vulcabras achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 30% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 17% average annual increase in the share price. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 7.66.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

BOVESPA:VULC3 Earnings Per Share Growth February 9th 2024

It is of course excellent to see how Vulcabras has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Vulcabras the TSR over the last 5 years was 165%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Vulcabras has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 77% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 22% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Vulcabras better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Vulcabras has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.