What Volt Group Limited's (ASX:VPR) 30% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Volt Group Limited (ASX:VPR) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 30% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 25% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Volt Group's P/E ratio of 18.4x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Australia is also close to 20x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

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For example, consider that Volt Group's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as earnings growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this benign earnings growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Volt Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Volt Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Volt Group would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. The longer-term trend has been no better as the company has no earnings growth to show for over the last three years either. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been satisfied with the complete absence of medium-term growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 22% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that Volt Group's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Volt Group's P/E?

Volt Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Volt Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Volt Group (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Volt Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.