Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX:HVN) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX:HVN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Harvey Norman Holdings

What Is Harvey Norman Holdings's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 Harvey Norman Holdings had AU$944.6m of debt, an increase on AU$850.4m, over one year. However, it also had AU$273.5m in cash, and so its net debt is AU$671.1m.

How Strong Is Harvey Norman Holdings' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Harvey Norman Holdings had liabilities of AU$796.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of AU$2.59b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of AU$273.5m as well as receivables valued at AU$941.4m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by AU$2.18b.

Harvey Norman Holdings has a market capitalization of AU$5.92b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Harvey Norman Holdings's net debt is only 0.91 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 11.1 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Harvey Norman Holdings's EBIT dived 17%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Harvey Norman Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Harvey Norman Holdings recorded free cash flow worth 60% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Harvey Norman Holdings was the fact that it seems able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. To be specific, it seems about as good at (not) growing its EBIT as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Harvey Norman Holdings's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Harvey Norman Holdings you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.