Why Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) Is Down 14.6% After Revised DAYBUE Sales and Royalty Outlook

• Earlier this week, Neuren Pharmaceuticals announced record Q3 2025 DAYBUE™ sales of US$101.1 million and provided an updated royalty outlook as Acadia Pharmaceuticals narrowed its full-year U.S. net sales forecast for the Rett syndrome drug.
• This development highlights both strong demand for DAYBUE and the sensitivity of Neuren's earnings to royalty projections and its partnership with Acadia.
• We'll now examine how strong DAYBUE sales growth and the revised royalty outlook influence Neuren's investment narrative and outlook.

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Neuren Pharmaceuticals Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Neuren Pharmaceuticals shareholder, you must believe in the long-term growth potential of DAYBUE™ royalties and the successful expansion of new drug candidates like NNZ-2591. The recent record DAYBUE sales reflect encouraging uptake, but the royalty outlook revision and reaction in the share price underscore how closely Neuren’s short-term prospects are tied to Acadia’s guidance, a factor that remains the leading risk and catalyst. This latest news does not represent a material shift in that dynamic.

Of Neuren’s recent developments, the initiation of NNZ-2591’s clinical program for additional neurological indications most directly supports the investment narrative. This diversification of drug pipeline could help offset the business’s current dependence on DAYBUE royalties and Acadia’s commercial performance, providing another potential growth lever alongside ongoing U.S. market expansion.

By contrast, it’s still important for investors to be aware of risks related to royalty concentration, especially if...

Read the full narrative on Neuren Pharmaceuticals (it's free!)

Neuren Pharmaceuticals' narrative projects A$166.7 million revenue and A$228.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires an annual revenue decline of 8.7% and an earnings increase of A$79.3 million from current earnings of A$149.1 million.

Uncover how Neuren Pharmaceuticals' forecasts yield a A$24.51 fair value, a 32% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve private investors in the Simply Wall St Community have set fair value estimates for Neuren Pharmaceuticals ranging widely from A$6.92 to A$29.55. With this diversity of opinion, and given the business’s ongoing reliance on DAYBUE’s market performance, you can explore several sharply different viewpoints on the company’s future potential.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Neuren Pharmaceuticals - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Neuren Pharmaceuticals Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Neuren Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Neuren Pharmaceuticals research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Neuren Pharmaceuticals' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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