Stock Analysis
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Sandfire Resources Limited (ASX:SFR) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Sandfire Resources
What Is Sandfire Resources's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Sandfire Resources had US$558.1m of debt at December 2023, down from US$625.1m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$105.4m, its net debt is less, at about US$452.7m.
How Healthy Is Sandfire Resources' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Sandfire Resources had liabilities of US$227.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.04b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$105.4m in cash and US$83.7m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.08b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Sandfire Resources has a market capitalization of US$2.57b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Sandfire Resources can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
In the last year Sandfire Resources had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 24%, to US$796m. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
Caveat Emptor
While Sandfire Resources's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Indeed, it lost US$29m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. However, it doesn't help that it burned through US$35m of cash over the last year. So suffice it to say we do consider the stock to be risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Sandfire Resources is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ASX:SFR
Sandfire Resources
A mining company, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral tenements and projects.