Stock Analysis

Retail investors in Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU) are its biggest bettors, and their bets paid off as stock gained 15% last week

ASX:NTU
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Key Insights

  • Northern Minerals' significant retail investors ownership suggests that the key decisions are influenced by shareholders from the larger public
  • A total of 18 investors have a majority stake in the company with 51% ownership
  • 19% of Northern Minerals is held by insiders

A look at the shareholders of Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU) can tell us which group is most powerful. We can see that retail investors own the lion's share in the company with 49% ownership. That is, the group stands to benefit the most if the stock rises (or lose the most if there is a downturn).

As a result, retail investors were the biggest beneficiaries of last week’s 15% gain.

Let's take a closer look to see what the different types of shareholders can tell us about Northern Minerals.

Check out our latest analysis for Northern Minerals

ownership-breakdown
ASX:NTU Ownership Breakdown February 14th 2024

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Northern Minerals?

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

Institutions have a very small stake in Northern Minerals. That indicates that the company is on the radar of some funds, but it isn't particularly popular with professional investors at the moment. So if the company itself can improve over time, we may well see more institutional buyers in the future. We sometimes see a rising share price when a few big institutions want to buy a certain stock at the same time. The history of earnings and revenue, which you can see below, could be helpful in considering if more institutional investors will want the stock. Of course, there are plenty of other factors to consider, too.

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:NTU Earnings and Revenue Growth February 14th 2024

We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in Northern Minerals. Looking at our data, we can see that the largest shareholder is Yuxiao Fund Pte Ltd with 9.8% of shares outstanding. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 6.3% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 4.2% by the third-largest shareholder.

After doing some more digging, we found that the top 18 have the combined ownership of 51% in the company, suggesting that no single shareholder has significant control over the company.

Researching institutional ownership is a good way to gauge and filter a stock's expected performance. The same can be achieved by studying analyst sentiments. There is some analyst coverage of the stock, but it could still become more well known, with time.

Insider Ownership Of Northern Minerals

The definition of an insider can differ slightly between different countries, but members of the board of directors always count. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it.

Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group.

Our information suggests that insiders maintain a significant holding in Northern Minerals Limited. Insiders own AU$34m worth of shares in the AU$183m company. It is great to see insiders so invested in the business. It might be worth checking if those insiders have been buying recently.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 49% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. This size of ownership, while considerable, may not be enough to change company policy if the decision is not in sync with other large shareholders.

Private Company Ownership

It seems that Private Companies own 29%, of the Northern Minerals stock. It might be worth looking deeper into this. If related parties, such as insiders, have an interest in one of these private companies, that should be disclosed in the annual report. Private companies may also have a strategic interest in the company.

Next Steps:

It's always worth thinking about the different groups who own shares in a company. But to understand Northern Minerals better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks for example - Northern Minerals has 5 warning signs (and 3 which are significant) we think you should know about.

If you are like me, you may want to think about whether this company will grow or shrink. Luckily, you can check this free report showing analyst forecasts for its future.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Northern Minerals might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.