Stock Analysis

Recent 12% pullback isn't enough to hurt long-term Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR) shareholders, they're still up 84% over 5 years

ASX:GOR
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The Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) share price has had a bad week, falling 12%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been pleasing. It has returned a market beating 76% in that time.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 12%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

See our latest analysis for Gold Road Resources

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years of share price growth, Gold Road Resources moved from a loss to profitability. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Gold Road Resources share price is up 23% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 5.1% each year. Notably, the EPS growth has been slower than the annualised share price gain of 7% over three years. So one can reasonably conclude the market is more enthusiastic about the stock than it was three years ago.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
ASX:GOR Earnings Per Share Growth April 20th 2024

We know that Gold Road Resources has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Gold Road Resources, it has a TSR of 84% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Gold Road Resources had a tough year, with a total loss of 10% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 8.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 13% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Before spending more time on Gold Road Resources it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Gold Road Resources is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.