Strong week for Aurelia Metals (ASX:AMI) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of five-year loss

Long term investing works well, but it doesn't always work for each individual stock. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Aurelia Metals Limited (ASX:AMI) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 85%. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

On a more encouraging note the company has added AU$25m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Aurelia Metals

Aurelia Metals isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last half decade, Aurelia Metals saw its revenue increase by 4.6% per year. That's far from impressive given all the money it is losing. Nonetheless, it's fair to say the rapidly declining share price (down 13%, compound, over five years) suggests the market is very disappointed with this level of growth. We'd be pretty cautious about this one, although the sell-off may be too severe. A company like this generally needs to produce profits before it can find favour with new investors.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. If you are thinking of buying or selling Aurelia Metals stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Aurelia Metals has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 18% in the last twelve months. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 13% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Aurelia Metals (including 1 which is concerning) .

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.