Stock Analysis

Alcidion Group (ASX:ALC investor three-year losses grow to 59% as the stock sheds AU$13m this past week

ASX:ALC
Source: Shutterstock

Alcidion Group Limited (ASX:ALC) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 16% in the last month. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a tragic 59% in the last three years. So it's good to see it climbing back up. While many would remain nervous, there could be further gains if the business can put its best foot forward.

With the stock having lost 12% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for Alcidion Group

Because Alcidion Group made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last three years, Alcidion Group saw its revenue grow by 27% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. The share price has moved in quite the opposite direction, down 17% over that time, a bad result. It seems likely that the market is worried about the continual losses. But a share price drop of that magnitude could well signal that the market is overly negative on the stock.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ASX:ALC Earnings and Revenue Growth December 22nd 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

Alcidion Group shareholders are down 50% for the year, but the market itself is up 9.7%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 10% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Alcidion Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alcidion Group you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.