Stock Analysis

TerraCom (ASX:TER) shareholders are still up 267% over 3 years despite pulling back 20% in the past week

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ASX:TER

The TerraCom Limited (ASX:TER) share price has had a bad week, falling 20%. In contrast, the return over three years has been impressive. Indeed, the share price is up a very strong 134% in that time. So the recent fall in the share price should be viewed in that context. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.

In light of the stock dropping 20% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

Check out our latest analysis for TerraCom

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

TerraCom became profitable within the last three years. Given the importance of this milestone, it's not overly surprising that the share price has increased strongly.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ASX:TER Earnings Per Share Growth November 3rd 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on TerraCom's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, TerraCom's TSR for the last 3 years was 267%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 1.5% in the last year, TerraCom shareholders lost 46% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 0.7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that TerraCom is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if TerraCom might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.