The Lottery Corporation Limited (ASX:TLC) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

The full-year results for The Lottery Corporation Limited (ASX:TLC) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Lottery reported AU$4.0b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.19 beat expectations, being 2.4% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Lottery after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Lottery

Following last week's earnings report, Lottery's 15 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be AU$3.94b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 5.4% to AU$0.18 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$3.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.18 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$5.34, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lottery at AU$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at AU$4.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Lottery is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.3% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Lottery is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Lottery. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$5.34, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Lottery going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Lottery has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.