Stock Analysis

Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return

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ASX:MND
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There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Although, when we looked at Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on Monadelphous Group is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.11 = AU$57m ÷ (AU$741m - AU$234m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

Therefore, Monadelphous Group has an ROCE of 11%. In isolation, that's a pretty standard return but against the Construction industry average of 16%, it's not as good.

View our latest analysis for Monadelphous Group

roce
ASX:MND Return on Capital Employed June 1st 2023

In the above chart we have measured Monadelphous Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

SWOT Analysis for Monadelphous Group

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Construction industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

The Trend Of ROCE

In terms of Monadelphous Group's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 23% over the last five years. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. If this were to continue, you might be looking at a company that is trying to reinvest for growth but is actually losing market share since sales haven't increased.

On a side note, Monadelphous Group has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 32% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.

In Conclusion...

From the above analysis, we find it rather worrisome that returns on capital and sales for Monadelphous Group have fallen, meanwhile the business is employing more capital than it was five years ago. Investors must expect better things on the horizon though because the stock has risen 4.5% in the last five years. Regardless, we don't like the trends as they are and if they persist, we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

On a final note, we've found 1 warning sign for Monadelphous Group that we think you should be aware of.

While Monadelphous Group may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Monadelphous Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.