Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (VIE:MMK) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week, you might have seen that Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (VIE:MMK) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to €70.80 in the past week. Mayr-Melnhof Karton reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €950m and statutory earnings per share of €5.41, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mayr-Melnhof Karton after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Mayr-Melnhof Karton's three analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €3.99b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 35% to €7.40 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €4.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of €8.12 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Mayr-Melnhof Karton

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €90.07 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Mayr-Melnhof Karton, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €110 and the most bearish at €78.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.06% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Mayr-Melnhof Karton's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €90.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mayr-Melnhof Karton analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Mayr-Melnhof Karton you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.