Stock Analysis

Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO) shareholders have earned a 8.3% CAGR over the last five years

TSX:BMO
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When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO) share price is up 20% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Meanwhile, the last twelve months saw the share price rise 2.7%.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Bank of Montreal

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Bank of Montreal actually saw its EPS drop 4.7% per year.

With EPS falling, but a modestly increasing share price, it seems that the market was probably too pessimistic about the stock in the past. In the long term, though, it will be hard for the share price rises to continue without improving EPS.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSX:BMO Earnings Per Share Growth April 21st 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Bank of Montreal's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Bank of Montreal, it has a TSR of 49% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Bank of Montreal's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 7.9%. We should note here that the five-year TSR is more impressive, at 8% per year. More recently, the share price growth has slowed. But it has to be said the overall picture is one of good long term and short term performance. Arguably that makes Bank of Montreal a stock worth watching. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Bank of Montreal better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Bank of Montreal has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

But note: Bank of Montreal may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Bank of Montreal is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.