Toho Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

As you might know, Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) just kicked off its latest full-year results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.5% to hit JP¥283b. Toho reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) JP¥260, which was a notable 18% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Toho

Taking into account the latest results, Toho's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥278.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 15% to JP¥225 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥279.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥223 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥6,043, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toho at JP¥6,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥5,500. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Toho is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 1.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Toho's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toho's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,043, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Toho going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Toho's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.