Stock Analysis

Molson Coors Beverage (NYSE:TAP) shareholders are still up 31% over 3 years despite pulling back 6.0% in the past week

NYSE:TAP
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By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE:TAP) shareholders have seen the share price rise 21% over three years, well in excess of the market return (11%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 13% , including dividends .

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

See our latest analysis for Molson Coors Beverage

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Molson Coors Beverage moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:TAP Earnings Per Share Growth April 17th 2024

We know that Molson Coors Beverage has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? Take a more thorough look at Molson Coors Beverage's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Molson Coors Beverage's TSR for the last 3 years was 31%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Molson Coors Beverage provided a TSR of 13% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Molson Coors Beverage better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Molson Coors Beverage .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Molson Coors Beverage is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.