J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Last week, you might have seen that J. Front Retailing Co., Ltd. (TSE:3086) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.1% to JP¥1,462 in the past week. J. Front Retailing reported JP¥407b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥114 beat expectations, being 6.6% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for J. Front Retailing

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from J. Front Retailing's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥415.6b in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 11% to JP¥102 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥415.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥112 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,744, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values J. Front Retailing at JP¥1,950 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,600. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that J. Front Retailing's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.1% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 5.4% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% per year. So although J. Front Retailing's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for J. Front Retailing. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that J. Front Retailing's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for J. Front Retailing going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for J. Front Retailing that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.