Record Backlog And Government Funding Will Expand Bus Market

Key Takeaways

• Market tailwinds from electrification mandates and government funding strongly support recurring order growth, expanding NFI's addressable market and long-term earnings stability.
  
• Operational improvements, supply chain normalization, and expansion of aftermarket services are expected to drive higher manufacturing efficiency and more resilient margins.
  
• Eroding market share, shifting product demand, high debt, tariff uncertainties, and rising competition challenge NFI's profitability, growth outlook, and ability to lead in zero-emission transit.

Catalysts

Manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

• Record multiyear backlog (over $13.5 billion, with high option conversion rates and strong book-to-bill ratios) provides significant forward visibility and positions NFI to benefit from the ongoing replacement cycle of aging bus fleets in North America and Europe-directly supporting future revenue growth.
  
• Robust demand environment fueled by sustained government funding for fleet electrification, including $20.6 billion in recent U.S. FTA funding (with dedicated low/no-emission bus programs), underpins multi-year transit investments and continued order flow, signaling long-term support for both revenue and earnings stability.
  
• Industry-wide acceleration towards lower-emissions vehicles, supported by increasing decarbonization policies and stricter emissions regulations globally, expands NFI's addressable market for zero-emission buses and their expanded electric product lineup-supporting higher future market share and revenue.
  
• Recent operational improvements, including supply chain normalization (reduction to only one high-risk supplier and increased parts availability), vertical integration initiatives, and U.K. facility consolidation efforts, are expected to enhance manufacturing efficiency and net margin expansion over the next several years.
  
• Continued growth of higher-margin aftermarket services, buttressed by a growing installed base and recurring maintenance/parts contracts, is expected to provide greater earnings resilience and smooth out cyclicality in core manufacturing revenue, supporting more stable long-term margin performance.

NFI Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming NFI Group's revenue will grow by 21.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -5.0% today to 2.0% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach $118.8 million (and earnings per share of $2.24) by about August 2028, up from $-163.7 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 22.2x on those 2028 earnings, up from -10.1x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the CA Machinery industry at 40.5x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.81%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

NFI Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The U.K. market, historically a stronghold for NFI (via Alexander Dennis), is under sustained pressure due to procurements favoring lower-cost, non-local manufacturers (especially from China), leading to downward revisions in long-term financial projections, significant non-cash impairments, and ongoing restructuring. This erodes revenue contributions, profitability, and adds execution risk to cost-reduction efforts that may not fully restore competitiveness or lost volumes.
  
• Despite a record backlog, a growing portion of new orders is for internal combustion engine (ICE) buses rather than zero-emission vehicles, reflecting shifting customer demand and a changing U.S. administration stance. This could dampen NFI's positioning as a zero-emission leader, slow anticipated secular tailwinds, and threaten future revenue growth and margin expansion associated with higher-value EV models.
  
• NFI remains highly leveraged (4.9x total leverage including convertibles at Q2 2025), despite recent refinancing. High debt levels constrain financial flexibility, increase vulnerability to interest expense volatility, and could restrict the company's ability to absorb adverse shocks or invest in R&D and growth initiatives-potentially weighing on future net earnings and margin recovery.
  
• Tariff regimes and evolving trade tensions, particularly regarding U.S. and Canadian raw materials, components, and finished goods, introduce ongoing uncertainty in input costs. While NFI aims to pass through these costs to customers, delays in reimbursement and potential inability to recover all tariff-related expenses could result in margin compression and negative cash flow timing, directly impacting earnings.
  
• The long-term addressable market for traditional heavy-duty buses could contract as alternative transit solutions (micro-mobility, on-demand shuttles, autonomous vehicles) gain traction and as aging fleet replacement cycles subside. Persistent labor cost inflation and increased global competition from both established and new EV-specialist entrants threaten NFI's market share and will likely pressure long-term margins and revenue growth.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$23.773 for NFI Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$26.98, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$22.96.
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $5.8 billion, earnings will come to $118.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 22.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.8%.
• Given the current share price of CA$19.18, the analyst price target of CA$23.77 is 19.3% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.