Last Update 08 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 1.92%

GFI: Higher Gold Price Assumptions And Projects Are Expected To Drive Upside

The analyst price target for Gold Fields has shifted modestly higher to about $831.30 from $815.61, as analysts factor in updated fair value, adjusted discount rates, stronger revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a slightly lower future P/E, informed by recent research that reflects reactions to Q3 results, evolving gold price views, and the company’s latest capital plans.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Gold Fields shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms revisiting their targets and ratings after the latest Q3 update, revised gold price assumptions, and the company’s refreshed capital plans and guidance.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts are lifting targets into the mid to high $40s and $50s range, pointing to revised gold price assumptions and the company’s Q3 report as supportive for higher fair value.
Some see the capital returns program and ongoing corporate M&A activity in the sector as supportive for shareholder value, which they factor into higher targets.
JPMorgan’s Overweight rating and $62 target, combined with its Positive Catalyst Watch into the upcoming capital markets day, highlights confidence that project updates, including Windfall, could add to the medium term growth story.
Analysts increasing targets often tie their views to Gold Fields’ ability to execute on its current portfolio and pipeline under a higher assumed gold price framework.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts have shifted ratings down to Hold, even as some targets move up, signaling concern that a lot of the perceived upside on execution and pricing may already be reflected in the share price.
The inaugural 5 year guidance, which includes higher reinvestment to sustain growth, is seen as a trade off between long term production stability and near term free cash flow. Some view this as a constraint on valuation upside.
Where targets have been trimmed into the mid $40s, the reasoning centers on the balance between higher capital needs, the pace of delivery against guidance, and how much investors are willing to pay for that growth profile.
The move to Hold ratings, including one with a ZAR 780 target, underlines a more cautious stance on execution risk and the potential for valuation to compress if project delivery or capital allocation falls short of expectations.

What's in the News

Gold Fields reaffirmed its full year 2025 production and cost guidance, expecting attributable gold equivalent production toward the upper end of the 2.250Moz to 2.450Moz range, which anchors many analysts' volume assumptions for the next year (Corporate Guidance).
The company reported third quarter 2025 production results, with gold produced of 621,000 oz compared with 510,000 oz a year earlier, and tonnes milled or treated of 10,882,000 versus 10,172,000 a year ago, giving investors fresh operating data to plug into their models (Announcement of Operating Results).
Gold Fields is proceeding with the second stage of its US$48m earn in option at Torq Resources' Santa Cecilia project, with an anticipated spend of about US$11m for project costs, diamond drilling and a US$1m property payment, highlighting ongoing involvement in external growth projects (Client Announcements).
The company is holding an Analyst or Investor Day, giving management a platform to discuss the portfolio, capital plans and guidance in more depth, which can influence how the market interprets recent results and forecasts (Analyst or Investor Day).

Valuation Changes

The consensus analyst price target has risen slightly, with fair value moving from $815.61 to about $831.30 per share.
The discount rate has edged higher from about 18.99% to about 19.14%, reflecting a modestly higher required return in analyst models.
Revenue growth assumptions have been marked higher, shifting from about 15.36% to about 19.45%.
Net profit margin expectations have moved up from about 32.55% to about 35.59%.
The future P/E has been marked lower, moving from about 22.0x to about 19.2x, which points to a slightly more conservative valuation multiple despite higher earnings assumptions.

Reliance on high gold prices and smooth project execution exposes Gold Fields to risks if market demand weakens or operational challenges arise.
Ambitious growth and strong ESG profile face threats from shifting investor focus, cost inflation, and competitive pressures, potentially impacting future valuation and returns.
Stronger production, exploration, ESG progress, and disciplined strategy drive resilient growth, improved returns, and position Gold Fields as a leading, stable gold mining investment.

Catalysts

About Gold Fields

Operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in Australia, South Africa, Ghana, Peru, Chile, and Canada.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Current valuation reflects expectations for sustained high gold prices, driven by continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty and broad investment demand for gold as a safe haven asset; any easing of these global tensions or shift in investment flows could negatively impact Gold Fields' long-term revenue outlook if gold demand weakens.
Anticipated production growth and margin expansion from projects like Salares Norte and Windfall are heavily predicated on uninterrupted ramp-up, successful permitting, and transition to steady-state operations; unexpected operational delays, permitting challenges, or higher-than-forecast capital requirements could impair future earnings and free cash flow generation.
The premium placed on Gold Fields' strong ESG performance assumes a persistently favorable market premium for ESG-leading miners, but increasing decarbonization efforts and investor rotation into critical metals for green technologies could reduce institutional and market appetite for gold equities, impacting relative valuation and market access.
Longer-term expectations for portfolio life extension, resource replacement via exploration and M&A, and optimization in core assets are ambitious and capital-intensive, with cost inflation, execution risk, and acquisition competition potentially eroding expected improvements to net margins and future production growth.
Elevated gold prices and robust recent operational cash flows may be leading to aggressive shareholder return expectations (e.g., dividends), but if gold prices normalize or operating/capital costs rise significantly, projected free cash flow and dividend capacity could fall short, pressuring future earnings per share and investor returns.

Gold Fields Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Gold Fields's revenue will grow by 4.7% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 28.7% today to 32.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.5 billion (and earnings per share of $3.26) by about September 2028, up from $1.9 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $3.7 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $1.7 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 17.7x on those 2028 earnings, up from 16.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Metals and Mining industry at 14.8x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to remain consistent over the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 17.97%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Gold Fields Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Gold Fields is benefiting from significant and sustained increases in gold production (24% half-on-half) and successful ramp-up of new assets such as Salares Norte, providing a stable path for long-term revenue growth and a stronger operating base, which may support higher share prices.
The company is generating robust free cash flow ($952 million adjusted FCF in H1 2025) and has a low net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (0.37x), enabling both reinvestment in growth and higher dividends (interim payout up 133% YoY), supporting stronger earnings and shareholder returns.
Continued focus on optimization, brownfields and greenfields exploration (including significant activity in Australia and Canada), and successful life extension projects at core mines (St. Ives, Agnew, South Deep, etc.) enhance reserve replacement and operational longevity, helping to protect and potentially expand future earnings power.
Gold Fields' accelerating ESG performance (notable advances in decarbonization, diversity, safety, and tailings management) is positioning the company for improved market perception, potential premium valuations, and better capital access, contributing positively to the long-term net margin and investor demand.
Strategic M&A and consolidation activity (e.g., Gold Road and Windfall acquisitions), disciplined capital allocation, and a strong production/cost guidance record increase resilience to sector volatility and may cement Gold Fields as a preferred gold mining investment, mitigating downside in share price by supporting investor confidence and long-term financial stability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of ZAR524.762 for Gold Fields based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of ZAR640.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just ZAR400.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $7.5 billion, earnings will come to $2.5 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 17.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 18.0%.
Given the current share price of ZAR617.93, the analyst price target of ZAR524.76 is 17.8% lower. Despite analysts expecting the underlying buisness to improve, they seem to believe the market's expectations are too high.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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