Last Update 08 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 1.57%

INPST: Parcel Locker Scale And Execution Will Drive Future Margin Upside

Narrative Update on InPost

The updated analyst price target for InPost moves modestly higher to about €16.53 from €16.28. Recent Street research, including a cut in one bank's target to €15.20 with an Overweight stance, suggests analysts are fine tuning assumptions around discount rates, fair value and future P/E rather than changing their broader view on the stock.

Analyst Commentary

Recent commentary around InPost, including the revised €15.20 target from JPMorgan, points to analysts fine tuning their views rather than making a fundamental call in one direction. Price targets sit within a relatively tight range, which often suggests the debate is around how quickly the company can execute and what P/E or cash flow multiple is appropriate, rather than around the basic business model.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts see the updated targets, including the €15.20 level, as still implying headroom versus the current share price. They link this to confidence in the long term earnings profile.
The decision from JPMorgan to keep an Overweight rating, even while trimming the target, signals that some large brokers still view the risk or reward on execution as attractive.
Supportive views often rest on the idea that the current P/E and cash flow expectations already reflect a degree of caution. From this perspective, any steady delivery on growth or margin goals could justify the refined targets.
Fine tuning of discount rates and fair value models, rather than wholesale changes, suggests bullish analysts are focused on calibration of assumptions, not a rethink of the business case.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts may view the cut from €16 to €15.20 as a signal that some prior assumptions on growth or profitability were ambitious and now need to be pulled back.
Trimming price targets while keeping positive ratings can indicate concern that execution needs to be tight for the current valuation to hold. This can leave less room for disappointment.
The reliance on future P/E and discount rate inputs to support targets highlights sensitivity to any changes in funding costs or earnings quality, which more cautious investors may see as a risk factor.
With targets being adjusted closer together, bearish analysts might argue that upside is becoming more limited relative to the operational and market risks they are monitoring.

What's in the News

An undisclosed buyer submitted an indicative proposal to acquire InPost S.A. (ENXTAM:INPST) for cash on January 6, 2026, and the Board of Directors formed a special committee to review the transaction (Key Developments).
InPost S.A. reaffirmed earnings guidance for 2025, keeping top line outlook ranges between 25% and 30% for volume and between 35% and 40% for revenue (Key Developments).
A special or extraordinary shareholders meeting is scheduled for December 11, 2025, at 12:30 W. Europe Standard Time at NH Hotel Luxembourg Airport, 1, Route de Trèves, 2633 Senningerberg, Luxembourg (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair value was nudged higher from about €16.28 to about €16.53, indicating a small upward adjustment in the modelled target level.
The discount rate edged lower from about 6.67% to about 6.48%, which mechanically supports a slightly higher fair value estimate.
Revenue growth was held essentially unchanged at about 15.65%, suggesting no material shift in top line growth assumptions within the model.
The net profit margin stayed broadly flat at about 10.59%, indicating stable expectations for underlying profitability.
The future P/E moved modestly higher from about 19.26x to about 19.44x, pointing to a slightly richer multiple being used in the valuation work.

Expansion through acquisitions and advanced locker technology strengthens out-of-home delivery leadership, enabling faster growth and increasing cost efficiency versus traditional delivery methods.
Diversified customer base and proprietary technology enhance revenue stability, boost operational margins, and reduce reliance on single partners or markets.
Rising competition, heavy investment outflows, and regulatory headwinds threaten InPost's profitability, with integration and cost challenges complicating its expansion and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

About InPost

Operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Poland and other European countries.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing expansion and network densification across key European markets-especially via M&A (Yodel, Sending) and rapid APM (locker) deployment including battery-powered units from Bloq.it-are allowing InPost to capture outsized parcel volume growth and extend its out-of-home leadership, supporting sustained double-digit revenue growth and operating leverage.
Growing shift of consumers and retailers toward locker-based, out-of-home delivery for greater flexibility, urban convenience, and sustainability-accelerated by urban densification and regulatory/environmental pressures-enables InPost to leverage its network and achieve structurally lower unit costs versus traditional to-door delivery, which should enhance net margins over time.
Increasing share of revenues from high-engagement, multi-platform end users and non-marketplace merchants (SMEs), coupled with strong customer loyalty (industry-leading NPS, mobile app adoption), reduces over-reliance on any single e-commerce partner (like Allegro) and underpins more stable, diversified revenue streams.
Strategic deployment of proprietary technology and data analytics to optimize route planning, dynamic pricing, and locker locations-along with new AI-led APMs-are improving per-parcel economics and utilization rates, creating a path to ongoing margin expansion and higher earnings.
Successful integration and transformation of recent acquisitions (notably Yodel in the UK) are expected to deliver material cost synergies, unlock cross-selling opportunities, and accelerate migration from costly to-door to more profitable locker-based deliveries, driving improvement in group EBITDA and long-term earnings power.

InPost Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming InPost's revenue will grow by 21.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.9% today to 13.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach PLN 2.9 billion (and earnings per share of PLN 6.97) by about September 2028, up from PLN 971.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting PLN3.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting PLN1.9 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 23.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the NL Logistics industry at 18.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.49% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.15%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

InPost Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

InPost faces increased competitive pressure from major e-commerce platforms (e.g., Allegro in Poland), which are expanding their logistics offerings and actively attempting to redirect parcels away from InPost; if large partners successfully internalize delivery or shift volumes elsewhere, it could materially reduce InPost's revenue and limit earnings growth.
Heavy capital investment in new APM rollouts, acquisition integration (Yodel, Sending), and continued expansion into international markets is driving higher debt levels and negative free cash flow quarter-to-quarter; if revenue and margin uplift do not offset these outlays, net margins and long-term profitability could be pressured.
The margin benefit of InPost's APM-led model may erode if labor and operational costs rise faster in key international markets (such as the U.K.), or if densification/optimization targets are not met, leading to higher cost per parcel and potential margin compression.
Ongoing regulatory and consumer pressures for sustainability, data privacy, and fair competition (e.g., legal disputes with Allegro) may increase compliance costs, impose operational constraints, or provoke legal risks that negatively affect profitability and cash flows.
Integration risks and ongoing losses in acquired businesses (specifically Yodel, with significant front-loaded integration/restructuring costs and currently loss-making operations) create uncertainty around the timeline to profitability in the U.K., raising the risk of slower-than-expected profit contribution and diluting group-level earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of PLN18.944 for InPost based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of PLN22.02, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just PLN16.04.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be PLN21.9 billion, earnings will come to PLN2.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
Given the current share price of PLN10.66, the analyst price target of PLN18.94 is 43.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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