Last Update 25 Dec 25

Fair value Increased 0.81%

INPST: Parcel Locker Network Expansion Will Drive Future Margin Upside

Narrative Update on InPost

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for InPost from approximately EUR 16.15 to EUR 16.28 per share, even though the Street price target was recently reduced to EUR 15.20. This reflects continued confidence in the company’s long term growth profile and earnings trajectory.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research has slightly reduced near term expectations for InPost while maintaining a broadly constructive stance on the company’s growth and execution capabilities.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts view the modest price target cut to EUR 15.20 as a calibration rather than a shift in thesis, arguing that the valuation still implies attractive upside relative to current levels.
The maintenance of an Overweight rating by JPMorgan is seen as validation that the long term growth story around parcel volumes, parcel locker penetration, and operating leverage remains intact.
Supportive analysts point to InPost’s strong competitive positioning in last mile logistics and continued network expansion as key drivers of margin improvement and cash flow growth over time.
Some see the recent target adjustment as building in more conservative macro and consumer assumptions, which they believe reduces risk in the valuation framework without undermining the core growth narrative.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that even a small downward revision to the price target signals increasing uncertainty around the pace of earnings growth and the company’s ability to fully deliver on prior expectations.
There are concerns that competitive pressures in e commerce logistics and potential pricing discipline could limit InPost’s ability to expand margins as quickly as previously anticipated.
More cautious views also focus on execution risk around continued network investments and international expansion, which could weigh on near term returns if volumes or utilization fall short.
Some worry that, despite still supportive ratings, high expectations embedded in current valuation multiples leave less room for error if growth normalizes or macro conditions deteriorate.

What's in the News

InPost has scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for December 11, 2025, at 12:30 W. Europe Standard Time at the NH Hotel Luxembourg Airport in Senningerberg, Luxembourg (company notice).
The company reaffirmed its earnings guidance for 2025, maintaining expected volume growth between 25% and 30% and revenue growth between 35% and 40%, indicating confidence in its operational momentum (company guidance).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from €16.15 to €16.28 per share, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in the intrinsic valuation.
Discount Rate has fallen marginally from 6.68 percent to 6.67 percent, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk or cost of capital in the updated model.
Revenue Growth forecast is effectively unchanged at approximately 15.65 percent, signaling stable expectations for top line expansion.
Net Profit Margin assumption remains virtually flat at around 10.59 percent, suggesting no material change in long term profitability expectations.
Future P/E multiple has increased slightly from 19.17x to 19.26x, implying a modestly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

Expansion through acquisitions and advanced locker technology strengthens out-of-home delivery leadership, enabling faster growth and increasing cost efficiency versus traditional delivery methods.
Diversified customer base and proprietary technology enhance revenue stability, boost operational margins, and reduce reliance on single partners or markets.
Rising competition, heavy investment outflows, and regulatory headwinds threaten InPost's profitability, with integration and cost challenges complicating its expansion and long-term growth prospects.

Catalysts

About InPost

Operates as an out-of-home e-commerce enablement platform providing parcel locker services in Poland and other European countries.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Ongoing expansion and network densification across key European markets-especially via M&A (Yodel, Sending) and rapid APM (locker) deployment including battery-powered units from Bloq.it-are allowing InPost to capture outsized parcel volume growth and extend its out-of-home leadership, supporting sustained double-digit revenue growth and operating leverage.
Growing shift of consumers and retailers toward locker-based, out-of-home delivery for greater flexibility, urban convenience, and sustainability-accelerated by urban densification and regulatory/environmental pressures-enables InPost to leverage its network and achieve structurally lower unit costs versus traditional to-door delivery, which should enhance net margins over time.
Increasing share of revenues from high-engagement, multi-platform end users and non-marketplace merchants (SMEs), coupled with strong customer loyalty (industry-leading NPS, mobile app adoption), reduces over-reliance on any single e-commerce partner (like Allegro) and underpins more stable, diversified revenue streams.
Strategic deployment of proprietary technology and data analytics to optimize route planning, dynamic pricing, and locker locations-along with new AI-led APMs-are improving per-parcel economics and utilization rates, creating a path to ongoing margin expansion and higher earnings.
Successful integration and transformation of recent acquisitions (notably Yodel in the UK) are expected to deliver material cost synergies, unlock cross-selling opportunities, and accelerate migration from costly to-door to more profitable locker-based deliveries, driving improvement in group EBITDA and long-term earnings power.

InPost Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming InPost's revenue will grow by 21.0% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 7.9% today to 13.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach PLN 2.9 billion (and earnings per share of PLN 6.97) by about September 2028, up from PLN 971.5 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting PLN3.4 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting PLN1.9 billion.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 16.2x on those 2028 earnings, down from 23.3x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the NL Logistics industry at 18.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.49% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.15%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

InPost Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

InPost faces increased competitive pressure from major e-commerce platforms (e.g., Allegro in Poland), which are expanding their logistics offerings and actively attempting to redirect parcels away from InPost; if large partners successfully internalize delivery or shift volumes elsewhere, it could materially reduce InPost's revenue and limit earnings growth.
Heavy capital investment in new APM rollouts, acquisition integration (Yodel, Sending), and continued expansion into international markets is driving higher debt levels and negative free cash flow quarter-to-quarter; if revenue and margin uplift do not offset these outlays, net margins and long-term profitability could be pressured.
The margin benefit of InPost's APM-led model may erode if labor and operational costs rise faster in key international markets (such as the U.K.), or if densification/optimization targets are not met, leading to higher cost per parcel and potential margin compression.
Ongoing regulatory and consumer pressures for sustainability, data privacy, and fair competition (e.g., legal disputes with Allegro) may increase compliance costs, impose operational constraints, or provoke legal risks that negatively affect profitability and cash flows.
Integration risks and ongoing losses in acquired businesses (specifically Yodel, with significant front-loaded integration/restructuring costs and currently loss-making operations) create uncertainty around the timeline to profitability in the U.K., raising the risk of slower-than-expected profit contribution and diluting group-level earnings.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of PLN18.944 for InPost based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of PLN22.02, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just PLN16.04.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be PLN21.9 billion, earnings will come to PLN2.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 16.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.2%.
Given the current share price of PLN10.66, the analyst price target of PLN18.94 is 43.7% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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