Last Update 21 Apr 26
MOB: Dual Terbinafine Suppliers And Broader Mandate Will Support Future Re Rating Potential
Analysts now hold the fair value estimate for Moberg Pharma steady at SEK 13.0, reflecting unchanged assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, and indicating that the recent review has not altered their SEK-based price target framework.
What's in the News
- Moberg Pharma plans to propose an amendment to its articles of association at the AGM scheduled for 21 May 2026. The amendment would expand the stated business scope to include development, manufacturing, direct and indirect sales, marketing and licensing of pharmaceuticals, medical technical products and skin care products, as well as ownership and management of immovable and movable assets (Key Developments).
- The proposed amendment allows the Board of Directors to make minor adjustments required for registration of the updated articles of association with the Swedish Companies Registration Office, subject to formal approval (Key Developments).
- The resolution on the new articles of association requires support from shareholders representing at least two thirds of the votes cast and the shares represented at the AGM (Key Developments).
- Regulators have approved an additional supplier of terbinafine for MOB-015, Moberg Pharma's drug for nail fungus, following a process that started in April 2024 (Key Developments).
- With the new approval, Moberg Pharma now has two alternative terbinafine suppliers. Each supplier is described as having capacity to meet the company's global demand for the active ingredient, which is presented as part of its broader quality and supply assurance efforts (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: SEK 13.0, unchanged, keeping the SEK based valuation anchor steady.
- Discount Rate: 5.224%, unchanged, so the required return used in the model remains consistent.
- Revenue Growth: 91.1814%, effectively unchanged, indicating that the same growth outlook is applied in the updated model.
- Net Profit Margin: 38.2664%, effectively unchanged, reflecting a stable profitability assumption.
- Future P/E: 19.66x, unchanged, signaling no adjustment to the valuation multiple applied to future earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Expansion in Norway and obtaining EU approvals bolster revenue potential and support Moberg Pharma's European growth strategy.
- Retaining full rights to MOB-015 improves margins and control over commercialization, with supply chain enhancements ensuring stable product availability.
- Delays in U.S. launch, cautious European expansion, and terminated partnerships threaten Moberg Pharma's short-term revenue growth and international market penetration.
Catalysts
About Moberg Pharma- A pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes medical products primarily in Sweden.
- The expansion into Norway represents a key milestone within Moberg Pharma's European growth strategy, expected to drive revenue increases through market share capture and increased reach in new European markets.
- Obtaining 13 EU market approvals positions the company well for a broader European rollout, enhancing future revenue potential and setting the groundwork for significant sales growth anticipated in 2026.
- Strategic decisions to retain full rights to MOB-015 in Europe, following the end of partnerships, are expected to improve net margins and strengthen control over commercialization efforts, thereby enhancing brand positioning.
- Securing a new terbinafine supply chain eliminates previous bottlenecks, supporting revenue growth by enabling reliable product availability for expansion efforts and ensuring long-term operational success.
- Planned additional U.S. clinical studies for FDA approval, while capital intensive initially, are likely to drive long-term earnings growth by expanding market opportunities and enhancing global marketing claims once successfully executed.
Moberg Pharma Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?
- Analysts are assuming Moberg Pharma's revenue will grow by 91.2% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -201.2% today to 38.3% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach SEK 36.2 million (and earnings per share of SEK 0.8) by about April 2029, up from -SEK 27.2 million today.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 20.1x on those 2029 earnings, up from -20.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the GB Pharmaceuticals industry at 63.3x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.66% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 5.22%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- The Phase III study for MOB-015 in North America did not meet its primary endpoint, necessitating additional clinical studies for FDA approval, which delays the U.S. launch and impacts potential revenue from the U.S. market.
- The company's decision to recognize an intangible asset impairment indicates financial prudence but also highlights risk, potentially affecting net margins due to the extended timeline and additional costs associated with further studies.
- Moberg Pharma's market expansion is cautious, as it is significantly focused on Europe, with many European market rollouts not expected until 2026, thereby delaying potential revenue growth and impacting near-term financial performance.
- The termination of market partnerships in South Korea and with Bayer poses a risk to international market penetration, potentially affecting expected earnings from these regions due to challenging market conditions and strategic resource reallocation.
- The necessity to secure terbinafine supply and complete internal regulatory steps before expanding to more EU markets could delay entry into potentially profitable markets, impacting future revenue opportunities.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?
- The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK13.0 for Moberg Pharma based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
- In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be SEK94.6 million, earnings will come to SEK36.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 20.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 5.2%.
- Given the current share price of SEK11.7, the analyst price target of SEK13.0 is 10.0% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.