Last Update 20 Oct 25
Fair value Decreased 1.03%Accor’s analyst price target has been revised downward by EUR 0.54 to EUR 52.01. Analysts point to modestly reduced revenue growth and fair value expectations, despite stable ratings across the Street.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts have recently updated their perspectives on Accor, citing both positive and cautious factors that affect the company’s outlook and valuation. The following summarizes key bullish and bearish takeaways from the latest research updates.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to maintain positive overall ratings, reflecting confidence in Accor’s operational resilience in a challenging environment.
- Despite minor downward revisions, upward price targets from major brokers indicate an expectation of continued revenue and earnings growth in the near to medium term.
- Strong brand positioning in the hospitality sector and sustained management execution support ongoing optimism about Accor’s long-term market value.
- The company’s proactive adaptation following recent results is seen as positive for maintaining a competitive edge and driving shareholder value over time.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts highlight reduced visibility and uncertainty following the company’s most recent half-year results. This raises concerns about near-term performance.
- Lowered price targets from several research houses reflect a more cautious stance on valuation. These changes are tied to expectations of slower growth and potential operating headwinds.
- Downward rating adjustments signal some analysts’ concerns about the pace of recovery and execution risks within the current macroeconomic context.
- A shift from Buy to Hold ratings suggests some skepticism regarding Accor’s ability to achieve aggressive growth and profit targets amid sector volatility.
What's in the News
- Accor is considering a U.S. initial public offering of its Ennismore lifestyle hotel venture, which could be valued at several billion euros. Talks are at an early stage and may not result in a transaction (Bloomberg).
- Ennismore, the venture in question, operates over 180 hotels under brands such as The Hoxton, Mondrian, 25hours Hotels, Hyde, and Morgans Originals (Accor).
- Accor completed a share buyback program and repurchased 4,627,761 shares, representing 1.93% of its capital, for €200.01 million between April and June 2025.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Lowered modestly from €52.55 to €52.01 per share, reflecting a slightly more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate: Decreased from 9.09% to 8.92%, indicating a marginally lower risk premium applied in current valuations.
- Revenue Growth: Trimmed from 6.06% to 5.86%, which points to somewhat reduced expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved slightly from 10.59% to 10.65%, which suggests incremental gains in profitability estimates.
- Future P/E: Increased from 21.12x to 22.78x, which signals a higher valuation multiple being applied to projected earnings.
Key Takeaways
- Expansion in luxury and lifestyle segments and a shift to an asset-light model should improve revenue quality, net margins, and earnings stability.
- Enhanced loyalty program and adoption of AI technology are expected to deepen guest engagement, boost recurring income, and drive operational efficiencies.
- Earnings growth is pressured by foreign exchange volatility, overreliance on Europe, emerging market risks, asset-light model challenges, and structural marketplace shifts.
Catalysts
About Accor- Operates a chain of hotels worldwide.
- Accor's rapidly expanding pipeline-driven by strong signings in the U.S., Asia, and growth in Luxury & Lifestyle brands-positions the company to benefit from increased global travel demand, urbanization, and the growing global middle class, which should support sustained revenue and net unit growth acceleration in coming years.
- The successful scaling of the ALL loyalty program-with membership surpassing 100 million and an expanding portfolio of partnerships-will deepen guest engagement, increase direct bookings, enable new revenue streams, and contribute meaningfully to recurring fee income and margin expansion.
- Continued shift toward an asset-light model, with disciplined focus on higher fee-per-room contracts and quality churn, is expected to improve net margins and enhance stability/recurrence of earnings by reducing capital expenditure and exposure to owned hotel volatility.
- Increasing deployment of AI-driven, cloud-based technology platforms (CRM, revenue management, PMS) is improving direct distribution, customer personalization, and pricing dynamics, which is likely to drive higher EBITDA margins through both cost efficiencies and top-line growth.
- Strengthened positioning in Lifestyle and Luxury hotel segments-with premium brands growing faster and contributing higher ADR and fee per room-will drive topline revenue growth and improve earnings quality and net margin as global demand for premium/lifestyle travel continues to outpace the broader sector.
Accor Future Earnings and Revenue Growth
Assumptions
How have these above catalysts been quantified?- Analysts are assuming Accor's revenue will grow by 6.1% annually over the next 3 years.
- Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 10.3% today to 10.6% in 3 years time.
- Analysts expect earnings to reach €717.1 million (and earnings per share of €3.26) by about September 2028, up from €586.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting €790 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting €535.5 million.
- In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 21.1x on those 2028 earnings, up from 16.8x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the GB Hospitality industry at 15.8x.
- Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 2.57% per year for the next 3 years.
- To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 9.09%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.
Accor Future Earnings Per Share Growth
Risks
What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?- Significant exposure to foreign exchange volatility, especially euro strengthening against the USD and other currencies, continues to negatively impact reported revenue and EBITDA; persistent FX headwinds could pressure overall earnings even amidst solid operational performance.
- Overdependence on mature European markets, especially France, could expose Accor to regional economic slowdowns, secular stagnation, and weak RevPAR growth in markets such as the UK and Germany, threatening revenue growth and net margin stability.
- Weakness in key emerging markets-including persistent high single-digit negative RevPAR growth in China and headwinds in markets like Thailand and Indonesia-highlight ongoing macro, regulatory, and security risks that could weigh on group-wide occupancy and revenue.
- Transition to an asset-light model increases reliance on third-party property operators; the text notes management contract conversions to franchise deals, which currently weigh on Management & Franchise (M&F) revenue, exposing earnings to operator underperformance and margin risk.
- Heightened competition from alternative accommodation platforms (e.g., Airbnb), changing travel behavior post-pandemic, and labor shortages-which drive persistent wage inflation and high staff turnover-are structural threats that may suppress occupancy rates, compress operating margins, and force ongoing investment, limiting long-term earnings growth.
Valuation
How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?- The analysts have a consensus price target of €52.547 for Accor based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €65.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €44.0.
- In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be €6.8 billion, earnings will come to €717.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 21.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.1%.
- Given the current share price of €40.85, the analyst price target of €52.55 is 22.3% higher.
- We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.
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Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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