Last Update 06 Jan 26

Fair value Increased 9.08%

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Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Taseko Mines from $7.08 to $7.72. They cite updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions as the main drivers of this change.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Taseko Mines sits against a broader backdrop of analysts revisiting their models across the mining and materials space, with fresh views on growth, margins and valuation assumptions. While the specific Street reports cited here focus on a different company, the themes they highlight around execution, contract quality and revenue mix are similar to the issues analysts are weighing for Taseko.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts tend to reward companies that show clearer levers for revenue growth tied to contracted or recurring income, such as long term agreements or fee based arrangements. This can support higher fair value estimates when they see more visibility in future cash flows.
They often highlight opportunities to improve monetization of existing assets and commercial relationships, for example by repricing contracts, adding higher value services or expanding inventory available for sale. These factors can support higher margin assumptions in their models.
Where management outlines concrete, time bound initiatives, bullish analysts may gain confidence in execution and reflect that in their P/E or cash flow multiples. This is especially the case if those initiatives are expected to contribute meaningfully within a defined planning horizon.
Analysts who raise valuation estimates usually view recent results as providing enough information to refine forecasts on revenue mix and profitability, even if some of the expected benefits are still several years out.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts often focus on timing risk, pointing out that even well articulated growth plans can be pushed out. This can affect near term earnings and justify more cautious assumptions on valuation multiples.
They may question how repeatable certain revenue sources are, especially if they rely on one off events, concentrated counterparties or contracts that may need to be renewed on less favorable terms.
Concerns can also center on execution complexity, for example if growth depends on new platforms, infrastructure or regulatory approvals. These requirements can create uncertainty around both costs and the pace at which higher margin opportunities are realized.
Where analysts see limited disclosure on contract economics or project returns, they may be slower to adjust fair value estimates. In such cases they may prefer to wait for more data before assuming higher sustainable growth or structurally higher margins.

What's in the News

Taseko Mines Limited was added to the S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index, increasing its presence in a key Canadian equity benchmark (Index Constituent Adds).
The company was also added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Completion Index, expanding its inclusion across multiple S&P/TSX indices (Index Constituent Adds).
Taseko reported third quarter 2025 production of 27.6 million pounds of copper, with tons mined of 29.3 million and tons milled of 7.8 million for the period ended September 30, 2025; for the first nine months of 2025, production was 67.4 million pounds of copper on 82.9 million tons mined and 23.4 million tons milled (Announcement of Operating Results).
The company completed a follow on equity offering of common shares, raising approximately US$150.255 million through the sale of 37,100,000 shares at US$4.05 each, ahead of a 90 day lock up period for 317,726,610 common shares held by directors and officers (Follow on Equity Offering and End of Lock Up Period).
Taseko provided an update on its 100% owned Florence Copper project, stating that final regulatory approvals have been received and wellfield operations are commencing, with the SX/EW plant moving into commissioning alongside ongoing operations at the Gibraltar Mine, where mill throughput was at a design level of 85,300 tons per day and average copper recoveries were 77% in the third quarter and 83% in September (Product Related Announcements).

Valuation Changes

The fair value estimate has risen slightly from CA$7.08 to CA$7.72, reflecting updated model assumptions.
The discount rate has edged up marginally from 7.79% to 7.80%, representing a very small change in the risk input used in the analysis.
Revenue growth has nudged higher from 34.24% to 34.29%, indicating a small adjustment to top line expectations in the model.
Net profit margin has moved modestly higher from 27.99% to 28.39%, implying a slightly stronger profitability assumption.
The future P/E multiple has increased from 9.67x to 10.39x, signalling a higher valuation multiple applied to projected earnings in the updated work.

Florence and Gibraltar projects are set to boost copper production, margins, and cash flow as US policy and electrification drive rising domestic demand.
Progress on large-scale growth assets enhances long-term value potential, with favorable market dynamics supporting revenue visibility and future returns.
Reliance on few assets, high costs, regulatory challenges, and copper price volatility create significant risks for growth, margins, and long-term project viability.

Catalysts

About Taseko Mines

A mining company, acquires, develops, and operates mineral properties.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The Florence Copper project is nearing completion, with first cathode production targeted for later this year and ramp-up to design capacity next year; as one of few U.S.-based producers, Florence stands to benefit from growing domestic demand for refined copper, particularly due to policy support for U.S. manufacturing and ongoing global electrification efforts, creating strong potential for revenue and earnings growth.
Operational improvements and access to higher-grade ore at the Gibraltar mine are expected to lead to a step-change in copper production volumes and lower unit cash costs in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, which should boost both revenues and operating margins.
The global supply-demand outlook for copper remains favorable, with stable, elevated LME copper prices driven by underinvestment in new supply and persistent long-term demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure, which supports higher realized copper prices and strengthens Taseko's revenue visibility and margin expansion prospects.
Recent successful agreements and progress on Taseko's large-scale growth assets (New Prosperity and Yellowhead) have unlocked or set up future optionality for resource development, with improved economics and permitting advances at Yellowhead indicating significant long-term NPV and potential future cash flow streams, which are not yet reflected in current equity valuation.
Overall cost management, including a decline of capitalized stripping at Gibraltar and the winding down of Florence construction spend, positions Taseko for improved free cash flow generation and potential deleveraging as new projects come online, likely enhancing net earnings and providing options for debt paydown or shareholder returns.

Taseko Mines Earnings and Revenue Growth

Taseko Mines Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Taseko Mines's revenue will grow by 27.8% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -4.9% today to 21.3% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CA$257.2 million (and earnings per share of CA$0.98) by about September 2028, up from CA$-28.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting CA$347 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting CA$158 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 9.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -53.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the US Metals and Mining industry at 18.0x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 4.04% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 7.45%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Taseko Mines Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent permitting, regulatory, and First Nations consent requirements for major projects like New Prosperity and Yellowhead create long-term uncertainty for future development, which could severely delay or even prevent new production coming online, constraining future revenue and growth potential.
High capital expenditures at Florence and increasing operational costs at Gibraltar (notably cash costs of $3.14/lb in Q2 and ongoing ramp-up/commissioning expenses) may compress net margins and earnings, especially if copper prices experience volatility or input costs rise.
Heavy operational and financial dependence on a small number of assets-primarily Gibraltar and the not-yet-operational Florence-exposes Taseko to concentration risk; any prolonged technical, environmental, or market disruption could significantly impact overall company revenue and profitability.
Volatility in copper prices driven by global macroeconomic factors and commodity market swings (as observed with recent U.S. copper tariff news and shifting COMEX/LME differentials) may result in unpredictable revenue and earnings, especially if long-term price protection is not secured for future production.
Heightened ESG expectations, environmental activism, and the need for ongoing community engagement (especially involving Indigenous stakeholders) may increase compliance costs, delay projects, or result in greater scrutiny, all of which risk reducing margins and returns over the long term.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$5.479 for Taseko Mines based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$6.1, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$5.0.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be CA$1.2 billion, earnings will come to CA$257.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 7.5%.
Given the current share price of CA$4.72, the analyst price target of CA$5.48 is 13.8% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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