CIGI: 2026 Guidance And Limited Buybacks Will Support Premium Earnings Multiple

Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Colliers International Group by a few dollars to reflect a slightly lower fair value estimate of about CA$244, while still pointing to solid 2026 guidance, relatively modest Q4 earnings pressure and what they view as overstated AI disruption risks.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research updates cluster around a similar theme, with price targets brought down modestly following the Q4 earnings miss but ratings staying constructive. Analysts appear to be recalibrating their expectations rather than making a wholesale shift in stance.

Bullish Takeaways

Bullish analysts point to 2026 guidance as evidence that management still sees solid underlying portfolio strength, which they view as supportive of the refreshed fair value estimates.
Several reports frame the Q4 miss as slight, arguing that the share price reaction was disproportionate to the size of the earnings shortfall. In their view, this creates an opportunity for investors focused on execution over a multi year period.
AI related disruption concerns are described as overblown by some bullish analysts, who see Colliers current business mix and service offerings as more resilient than the market reaction implies.
One major firm highlights that, even with trimmed targets, the stock is still seen as offering exposure to a mid teen earnings growth profile at what it calls a very reasonable price.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts respond to the Q4 earnings miss by cutting price targets, signaling a view that near term execution came in below prior expectations and warrants a more cautious stance on valuation.
Lowered targets in the US$155 to US$180 range suggest some concern that previous assumptions around growth and profitability may have been too optimistic, even if ratings remain positive.
Some commentary acknowledges that AI fears could linger, which could keep a lid on multiple expansion if investors stay focused on disruption risk rather than long term fundamentals.
The spread between prior and updated price targets indicates a tighter margin for error. Analysts are effectively asking for clearer evidence that Colliers can deliver on its 2026 guidance and earnings growth ambitions.

What's in the News

Colliers International Group issued consolidated earnings guidance for 2026, stating an expectation for mid teens revenue growth on a company wide basis (Corporate Guidance).
The company reported that from May 7, 2025 to June 30, 2025 it did not repurchase any shares under its previously announced share buyback program, with total repurchases at 0 shares for CAD 0 million (Buyback Tranche Update).
From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025 Colliers again reported no share repurchases under the same buyback, keeping total activity at 0 shares for CAD 0 million (Buyback Tranche Update).
From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025 the company continued to report no share repurchases, with the buyback program still showing cumulative purchases of 0 shares for CAD 0 million (Buyback Tranche Update).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value: trimmed slightly from CA$247.89 to CA$243.73, reflecting a modest reduction in the modeled estimate.
Discount Rate: nudged higher from 8.62% to 8.64%, implying a slightly higher required return in the updated assumptions.
Revenue Growth: raised from 8.04% to 10.58%, indicating a higher expected revenue growth rate in the new model.
Net Profit Margin: reduced from 3.89% to 3.32%, pointing to more conservative expectations for earnings relative to sales.
Future P/E: lifted from 44.4x to 47.6x, signaling a higher assumed earnings multiple in the updated framework.

Diversification into alternative assets and expanded outsourcing services is strengthening recurring revenue streams, improving margins, and enhancing resilience across economic cycles.
Digital transformation and targeted acquisitions are boosting productivity, market share, and profitability, driving sustained growth in commercial real estate and investment management.
Heavy dependence on industrial leasing, acquisitions, and traditional brokerage services exposes Colliers to market volatility, integration risks, and technological disruptions, threatening growth and profitability.

Catalysts

About Colliers International Group

Provides commercial real estate to corporate and institutional clients in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, the United Kingdom, Poland, China, India, and internationally.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The growing interest from institutional and private wealth channels in alternative asset classes such as data centers, student housing, infrastructure, and credit solutions is driving segment diversification and AUM growth in the investment management business, supporting future recurring fee revenue and higher net margins.
Ongoing urbanization and expansion in metropolitan regions globally are sustaining demand for commercial real estate services and large-scale engineering projects, as evidenced by a strong, diversified engineering backlog and continued high single-digit organic revenue growth, which should drive both top-line revenue growth and margin enhancement.
Acceleration in digital transformation, including proprietary technology adoption and automation within Colliers' operations, is increasing productivity and efficiency, resulting in higher EBITDA margins and organic profitability, as seen in recent improvements in engineering and real estate services margins.
Strategic M&A activity, particularly in high-growth, high-margin segments (such as European credit, student housing, and infrastructure via RoundShield and expansion in Asia-Pacific and Europe), is expected to enhance Colliers' market share and diversify its earnings streams, bolstering both revenue and earnings resilience.
The expanded focus on recurring outsourcing services and professional advisory, underpinned by demand for ESG and sustainability expertise, is increasing high-quality, stable revenue streams, leading to improved net margins and stronger earnings defensibility through economic cycles.

Colliers International Group Earnings and Revenue Growth

Colliers International Group Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Colliers International Group's revenue will grow by 8.2% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.2% today to 3.7% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $242.1 million (and earnings per share of $2.99) by about September 2028, up from $112.1 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $307.3 million in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $110 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 45.1x on those 2028 earnings, down from 73.0x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the CA Real Estate industry at 9.7x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to grow by 0.77% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.02%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Colliers International Group Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

The decline in leasing revenues, particularly in the industrial segment, highlights vulnerability to macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds; industrial leasing provides 40–45% of total leasing income, so sustained weakness here could depress total segment revenue and net margins.
The company continues to face fundraising headwinds in its Investment Management division, with year-to-date commitments still below historical levels; a slower recovery in alternative real estate fundraising could limit AUM growth and fee-based earnings over the long term.
Ongoing reliance on acquisitions for growth, especially in Engineering and Investment Management, introduces execution risk: integrating frequent acquisitions and managing valuation multiples (notably, RoundShield acquired at a "low teens" multiple) could lead to increased G&A expenses, margin compression, or distraction from organic revenue/profit improvements.
Colliers' real estate services and brokerage revenues remain sensitive to cyclicality in global commercial real estate transactions, and rising interest rates or prolonged high financing costs could dampen transaction volumes, restraining capital markets and brokerage revenue growth and reducing earnings resilience.
Intensifying technology adoption across the real estate industry (e.g., digital platforms, remote leasing, AI-driven management) risks disintermediation of traditional services; Colliers may face downward pressure on fee rates and higher investment requirements for digital transformation, ultimately compressing long-term EBITDA margins and profitability.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$229.773 for Colliers International Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$255.23, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$187.24.
In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $6.5 billion, earnings will come to $242.1 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 45.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
Given the current share price of CA$222.04, the analyst price target of CA$229.77 is 3.4% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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