Last Update 31 Mar 26

Fair value Decreased 1.82%

TECK.B: Anglo Merger Progress And Copper Output Will Drive Future Upside

The updated analyst price target for Teck Resources edges lower by about CA$1.50, as analysts balance a series of higher CA$79 to CA$82 targets tied to the Anglo American merger progress with more cautious recent revisions from firms such as Scotiabank.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Teck Resources shows a split view, with several firms lifting price targets around the Anglo American merger process and a smaller group turning more cautious as the stock reacts to prior gains and valuation shifts.

Bullish analysts are generally focused on potential value from the proposed merger and updated models following recent results, while bearish analysts are more focused on timing, regulatory risk, and where the shares currently trade relative to their targets.

Bullish Takeaways

Several bullish analysts have moved Canadian dollar targets into the CA$79 to CA$82 range, reflecting expectations that the proposed Anglo American merger and updated operating assumptions could support a higher blended valuation.
One firm lifted its US dollar target to US$67 from US$48, citing potential revenue synergies at QB/Collahuasi and recurring pre tax annual synergies from the Anglo American tie up as key drivers for possible value creation.
Some research updates following Q4 results and operating numbers support higher targets around CA$80, suggesting that execution on the current asset base, combined with merger related benefits, could justify stronger long term earnings power.
Multiple upgrades and target increases imply that, for bullish analysts, the risk reward remains attractive if the merger proceeds as planned and synergy assumptions are realized over time.

Bearish Takeaways

Bearish analysts highlight that recent share price strength has led to downgrades that point to valuation concerns, with some viewing the post rally level as less compelling relative to their target ranges.
One recent cut of a Canadian dollar target by CA$10 signals increased caution, as this group reassesses upside potential in light of prior target hikes and market reaction.
Rating changes to Hold or similar stances suggest that some analysts see a more balanced risk profile, where execution on the merger and underlying operations needs to be proven before they would revisit more optimistic assumptions.
The merger timeline, including remaining regulatory approvals in China and South Korea that one analyst indicated could take up to 12 months, adds a layer of timing and deal completion risk that more cautious analysts continue to flag.

What's in the News

Teck completed a share buyback program announced on November 18, 2024, repurchasing 18,798,430 shares, or 3.75% of shares, for $1,030m, with no additional shares repurchased between October 1, 2025 and November 21, 2025 (Key Developments).
For 2026, Teck issued production guidance of 455,000 to 530,000 tonnes of copper, 410,000 to 460,000 tonnes of zinc, and 190,000 to 230,000 tonnes of refined zinc (Key Developments).
For the first quarter of 2026, Teck expects Red Dog zinc in concentrate sales of 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes (Key Developments).
Teck reported unaudited fourth quarter 2025 production of 134,100 tonnes of copper, 108,600 tonnes of zinc, and 68,100 tonnes of refined zinc (Key Developments).
For full year 2025, Teck reported unaudited production of 453,500 tonnes of copper, 565,000 tonnes of zinc, and 229,900 tonnes of refined zinc (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Fair Value has moved from CA$80.82 to CA$79.35, indicating a modestly lower central estimate for Teck Resources.
The Discount Rate has been adjusted from 8.04% to 8.00%, implying a marginally different required return used in the valuation work.
Revenue Growth has been revised from 3.88% to 3.28%, pointing to a more conservative assumption for future CA$ revenue expansion.
The Net Profit Margin has been updated from 15.18% to 15.45%, reflecting a small uplift in expected earnings margin on CA$ revenue.
The Future P/E has been adjusted from 25.61x to 25.12x, suggesting a modest change in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

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Key Takeaways

Strategic copper expansion and optimization projects position the company to capitalize on electrification trends and achieve superior volume growth compared to peers.
Emphasis on strong balance sheet, ESG leadership, and stable jurisdictions supports sustained earnings, premium customer access, and resilience against market and regulatory risks.
Project setbacks, rising costs, regulatory uncertainty, and commodity price weakness threaten Teck's earnings quality, revenue diversification, and ability to achieve production growth.

Catalysts

About Teck Resources

Engages in research, exploration, development, processing, smelting, refining, and reclamation of mineral properties in Asia, the Americas, and Europe.What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

The sanctioned Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension project and ongoing optimization/debottlenecking at QB are set to double Teck's copper production by decade's end, enabling the company to capitalize on the accelerating demand for copper from global electrification and energy transition, which should materially increase revenue and long-term earnings growth.
Teck is progressing lower-risk, high-return copper growth projects (Zafranal, San Nicolas) that are well-advanced in permitting and construction readiness, offering near-term expansion opportunities in stable jurisdictions and positioning the company to capture outsized volume growth and improved net margins versus industry peers.
The company's strong balance sheet and robust liquidity ($4.8B in cash and $8.9B total liquidity) provide capacity to execute large-scale copper growth investments and shareholder returns (buybacks/dividends), supporting sustained increases in per-share earnings and capital returns.
Teck's ongoing investment in ESG initiatives, safety culture, and sustainable mining (19 consecutive years recognized as a top Canadian corporate citizen) enhances its access to premium customers and capital, reduces regulatory and reputational risk, and should help support higher realized prices and better long-term margin resilience.
Tightening global metals supply amid underinvestment, combined with Teck's portfolio repositioning toward base metals and operations in geopolitically stable regions (Canada/Chile), positions the company to benefit from price appreciation and superior margin expansion as end-users and governments prioritize secure and responsible sourcing.

Teck Resources Earnings and Revenue Growth

Teck Resources Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

How have these above catalysts been quantified?

Analysts are assuming Teck Resources's revenue will grow by 3.3% annually over the next 3 years.
Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 13.0% today to 15.4% in 3 years time.
Analysts expect earnings to reach CA$1.8 billion (and earnings per share of CA$4.62) by about March 2029, up from CA$1.4 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting CA$3.5 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting CA$796.6 million.
In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the analysts, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 25.2x on those 2029 earnings, up from 23.5x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Metals and Mining industry at 15.5x.
Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.91% per year for the next 3 years.
To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 8.0%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Risks

What could happen that would invalidate this narrative?

Persistent operational delays and unforeseen technical challenges at major projects like QB2, including the ongoing TMF (Tailings Management Facility) issues and shiploader repairs, risk continued production shortfalls and increased costs, which could reduce revenue growth and erode net margins.
Material cost inflation, higher project contingencies, and the impact of tariffs and accelerated equipment procurement-as seen with the Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension-indicate that Teck's large capital projects are susceptible to persistent CapEx escalation, potentially straining free cash flow and affecting long-term earnings quality.
While Teck's strategy is focused on copper growth, persistent exposure to regulatory uncertainty, complex permitting, and extended project timelines in multiple jurisdictions (Canada, Chile, Peru, Mexico) could delay ramp-up or expansion of new mines, limiting expected revenue diversification and impairing future earnings.
Teck's near-term and long-term profitability remains vulnerable to declines in copper and zinc prices, as illustrated by weaker segment results this quarter-should metals prices continue to underperform, the company's revenues and net earnings would be meaningfully impacted.
Increasing climate
and ESG-related operational risks-including the impact of water scarcity (noted as a prior constraint in Chile) and stricter environmental regulations-could elevate compliance and operating costs across Teck's portfolio, constraining margins and limiting the company's ability to deliver on ambitious production growth targets.

Valuation

How have all the factors above been brought together to estimate a fair value?

The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$79.35 for Teck Resources based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$104.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$49.0.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be CA$11.8 billion, earnings will come to CA$1.8 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 25.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.0%.
Given the current share price of CA$67.29, the analyst price target of CA$79.35 is 15.2% higher.
We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

TECK.B: Merger Activity And Copper Prices Will Shape Future Risk And Reward